Brazilian sovereign spreads seem likely to trend downwards, supported by an economy whose structure appears well-suited to take advantage of likely conditions over the next 12-to-18 months.

The most recent data from China support the notion that the manufacturing sector’s pace of production is probably running behind the pace of demand’s recovery; the logical implication—a potential surge of output in the next few months—becomes more likely.

The latest data from Korea support a rather positive view of that economy: a recovery is underway, and it is unfolding in a vigorous pattern, describing a V-shaped upturn from the deep recession that affected Korea since the third quarter of 2008.

The data continue to suggest stabilization on China’s export front, improvement in its domestic demand, and moderation of credit expansion.

Taiwan’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.25% in their September meeting. The bank has kept rates steady since February, after rapidly reducing them by a cumulative 237.5 basis points in seven installments since June 2008. Rates are presently at record levels in nominal terms, and close to the lows briefly reached in the mid 1990s in inflation-adjusted terms.

Unsurprisingly, the Turkish Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.25%. This was the 11th consecutive cut since September 2008, accumulating a massive 950 basis points easing from a peak of 16.75%.

Brazil’s second quarter real GDP data confirm all previously available evidence pointing to an economic rebound, and suggest that the developing upturn may evolve into a V-shaped recovery over the next few quarters.

Singapore’s industrial production posted a gain of 12.4% year-on-year in July.

China’s July data show the recovery continuing, although generally speaking the up-tick picture seemed on the surface (in some cases—although not all—partly on account of statistical effects) slightly more subdued.

The outlook for emerging market currencies remains positive vis-à-vis the US dollar, to a significant extent because of dollar structural and cyclical weakness, but also on account of developments within the EM economies.