June pending existing home sales unexpectedly fall 2.6% (Consensus: +3.7%; Decision Economics: +3.0%), deepening the payback in sales (After a 29.9% drop in May) that has followed on the runup caused by the April 30 deadline for the homebuyers tax credit program.

June manufacturers orders fall a more-than-expected 1.2%, on a durable goods decline revised to 1.2% from 1.0% and a weaker-than-expected -1.3% result for non-durables.

June personal income and consumption disappoint expectations, with both coming in flat--though with the shortfall severe on the income side (Consensus: +0.2%; decision Economics: +0.3%) than for consumption (Consensus and Decision Economics: +0.1%).

The Trade Balance (Tue., Ju1. 13, 8:30 a.m.) and its track of exports and imports can indicate the strength of the global economy with many “open” economies. Can the improvement in U.S. exports continue or will economic weakness offshore depress them?

Initial claims fall a somewhat more-than-expected 21,000 (Consensus and Decision Economics: -12,000) from a prior-week level revised up by 3,000.

Initial claims fall a somewhat more-than-expected 21,000 (Consensus and Decision Economics: -12,000) from a prior-week level revised up by 3,000.

The headline June ISM Non-Manufacturing Index falls a more-than-expected 1.6 points (Consensus: -0.5 point; Decision Economics: +0.1 point), to 53.8.

June payrolls fall 125,000, with a 225,000 drop in Census employment. Private payrolls rose 83,000, following on a May increase of 33,000, revised from 41,000, and an April rise of 241,000 revised from 218,000.

As often seems to be the case lately, the two weekly store-sales surveys describe different universes, with Redbook Research seeing below-plan results in a "normal seasonal lull" but ICSC/Goldman Sachs observing that "consumer spending heated up with the seasonally hot weather."

Initial claims come in very close to expectations, falling 10,000 (Consensus and Decision Economics: -5,000) from a prior-week level revised up by 3,000.